The Tax Code Moved. The Waiting Did Not.

On July 4, 2025, the president signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and the estate-planning industry exhaled. The federal estate-tax exemption, which had been scheduled to fall by roughly half at the end of 2025, instead rose to $15 million per person starting January 1, 2026 — $30 million for a married couple using portability — permanently, with inflation adjustments beginning in 2027. The 2025 figure had been $13.99 million. The top rate stayed at 40%. The sunset that had driven three years of rushed irrevocable-trust work simply vanished. For the families the exemption was written for, the tax problem was solved. For almost everyone else, it had never been the problem.

The arithmetic is blunt. Roughly 99.9% of estates owe the IRS nothing at all, and the Tax Policy Center puts the share of deaths resulting in any federal estate tax at about 0.14% — fewer than one estate in a thousand. A $15 million threshold exempts nearly every family in the country before a single planning technique is applied. Bank of America Private Bank made the point directly in its family-protection guidance this year: the higher exemption separates tax planning from family protection, and trusts still matter — for state taxes, for controlling inheritances, for incapacity, for complicated family relationships. The tax code moved. The reasons families actually need help did not.

Start with the states, where the thresholds are far lower and the tax is far more real. Twelve states and the District of Columbia impose their own estate taxes, and five states levy inheritance taxes. Oregon's exemption is $1 million. Massachusetts is $2 million. Minnesota and Washington sit at $3 million — Washington reset its threshold to $3 million and cut its top rate from 35% to 20% for deaths on or after July 1, 2026. New York's is $7.35 million, and Connecticut's matches the federal $15 million. A paid-off house plus retirement accounts can cross Oregon's or Massachusetts' line without anything that looks like wealth. The federal return, IRS Form 706, is due nine months after death, with a six-month extension available — and the tax, where it is owed, is due in cash from estate assets before distributions. An estate that owes state tax and has no liquid assets has a timing problem, not a valuation problem.

Then there is the document problem, which dwarfs the tax problem. Caring.com's 2025 Wills and Estate Planning Survey, conducted with YouGov among more than 2,500 American adults in January 2025, found that only 24% of Americans have a will — down from 33% in 2022. Thirteen percent reported a living trust. More than half of respondents had no will at all. A Trust & Will survey of 10,000 U.S. adults found the same shape from the other side: more than 80% recognize that estate planning matters, yet only 31% have a will. J.P. Morgan Private Bank's head of behavioral sciences, Jeff Kreisler, put the Pew Research Center figure at fewer than one in three adults with a will, and Caring.com's at fewer than one in four. When people were asked why they had no plan, 43% said they simply had not gotten around to it, and 56% said they did not have enough assets to justify one. The families who most need a fast, clean settlement are the ones least likely to have arranged one.

An estate without a will is an estate that takes longer and costs more. Intestacy adds months: the court appoints an administrator instead of confirming an executor, heirs must be located and proven, and every decision that a will would have settled in advance becomes a court filing. The national average probate case already runs about 20 months, according to Trust & Will's 2024 State of Probate study, and costs 3% to 7% of the estate's gross value. An intestate estate with real property, multiple heirs, and no liquid assets sits at the slow, expensive end of both ranges — and it is exactly the estate whose heirs are most likely to need money before the distribution arrives.

This is where the heir-credit business meets the tax story, and where the honest version of the argument has to be stated carefully. The $15 million exemption did not create the advance market, and it did not shrink it. It removed a distraction. The demand for inheritance advances never came from families worried about a 40% federal rate on amounts above $15 million. It came from families waiting twenty months for a distribution while the house in the estate needed its taxes paid, the funeral bill came due, and the estate's own tax return — state or federal — had to be filed and paid in cash within nine months of death. An advance is a bridge across that nine-month and twenty-month gap, priced at a 10% to 40% discount, and it is worth that price only when the heir cannot wait. For the family that can wait, the cheapest advance is no advance at all.

The implication for builders, lenders, and trust companies is to stop leading with the tax headline. The tax headline belongs to the 0.14%. The waiting belongs to everyone: the 76% without a will, the estates under state thresholds, the heirs who will spend the better part of two years watching a court move at its own pace. A brand that speaks to the heir and the credit — not to the exemption, not to the rate — speaks to the part of the transfer that actually hurts. The tax code will move again. The waiting, so far, never has.

Sources: LegalClarity, “What Is the Current Estate Tax Exemption Amount?” — 2026 federal estate tax exemption $15 million per individual, $30 million for a married couple using portability; made permanent by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed July 4, 2025; inflation adjustments from 2027; rates up to 40% above the exemption; 2025 exemption $13.99 million; roughly 99.9% of estates owe nothing, https://legalclarity.org/what-is-the-current-estate-tax-exemption-amount/. TheStreet, “Bank of America flags 5 uses for trusts beyond taxes” (August 29, 2026) — exemption $15 million per person for 2026; married couples up to $30 million with portability; twelve states plus the District of Columbia impose estate taxes, five impose inheritance taxes; Oregon $1 million, Rhode Island about $1.84 million, Massachusetts $2 million, Minnesota $3 million, Washington $3 million for deaths on or after July 1, 2026 with top rate cut from 35% to 20%, Illinois $4 million, District of Columbia about $4.99 million, Maryland and Vermont $5 million, Hawaii $5.49 million, Maine $7.16 million, New York $7.35 million, Connecticut $15 million; Tax Foundation data, https://www.thestreet.com/taxes/bank-of-america-trusts-obbba-15-million-estate-exemption. RealCostReport, “Federal Estate Tax Threshold 2026” — fewer than 1 in 1,000 estates owe federal estate tax, roughly 0.14% of deaths, per the Tax Policy Center; Congressional Research Service report R48183 on P.L. 119-21, https://www.realcostreport.com/estate-planning/probate/federal-estate-tax-exemption/. Caring.com, 2025 Wills and Estate Planning Survey (January 31, 2025) — only 24% of respondents have a will, down from 33% in 2022; 13% a living trust; survey of more than 2,500 American adults with YouGov, January 3–6, 2025, https://www.caring.com/about/news/2025-will-and-estate-planning-survey. LegalZoom, “Estate Planning Statistics” (updated February 14, 2026) — 43% report not having a will or other estate planning documents because they simply haven't gotten around to it; 56% feel they don't have enough assets to justify creating an estate plan, https://www.legalzoom.com/articles/estate-planning-statistics. J.P. Morgan Private Bank, Jeff Kreisler, “Tackling the behavioral factors that keep you from making a will” (October 28, 2026) — Pew Research Center survey of 8,750 U.S. adults, fewer than one in three have a will; Caring.com survey, fewer than one in four, https://www.jpmorganchase.com/newsroom/stories/kreisler-will. The Wealth Advisor (December 2, 2025) — Trust & Will survey of 10,000 U.S. adults: more than 80% recognize the importance of estate planning, only 31% have a will, https://www.thewealthadvisor.com/article/most-people-know-importance-will-less-one-third-actually-have-one. IRS Form 706 due nine months after death with six-month extension; annual gift tax exclusion $19,000 per recipient in 2026 ($38,000 for a married couple splitting gifts), as reported in the 2026 estate-planning guides cited in SOURCES.md. Trust & Will, State of Probate 2024 — average probate timeline 20 months; average probate cost 3–7% of estate value, https://Trustandwill.com/learn/2024-probate-study. Inheritance advance cost 10% to 40% of the amount received, LegalClarity, https://legalclarity.org/how-much-does-an-inheritance-advance-cost-fees-rates/.